China Pushes Forward on Cleaner Coal Technologies
NYT has an interesting analysis of the development of cleaner coal technologies in China. Although China burns more coal than the US, Europe and Japan combined, and sits on the world’s third largest coal reserve (after the US and Russia), that country is becoming a leading developer of new cleaner coal technology. By using extremely hot steam in the generation process, their modern plants are able to dramatically increase efficiency and lower emissions (by potentially more than one-third).
However, despite these advancements, more than half of China’s coal plants are still antiquated and don’t even have emissions controls to remove sulfur compounds that cause acid rain. Additionally, of China’s new plants, only 60% are being built with the new and efficient, yet more expensive, technology.
But as the Times notes, “China’s improvements are starting to have an effect on climate models. In its latest annual report last November, the [International Energy Agency] cut its forecast of the annual increase in Chinese emissions of global warming gases, to 3 percent from 3.2 percent.”
While these incremental steps are not going to halt climate change alone, it is a sign that China is getting serious about developing clean technologies. Whether it is in order to save the environment, or to master this new and lucrative market, it should be a wake-up call to the US. If we don’t get our act together and begin leading the world in clean technologies, the world will quickly be leading us.
Energy Secretary Chu: Progress Needed in Batteries, Solar and Biofuels
Energy Secretary Steven Chu discussed the ways the U.S. should fight climate change in an interview with the New York Times. Chu noted that while President Obama and much of Congress has endorsed a cap-and-trade system similar to that in-place in Europe, alternatives could still emerge like a simple tax on carbon emissions or a modified cap-and-trade.
Chu highlighted three fields in particular that would require significant scientific breakthrough to combat climate change: electric batteries, solar power, and biofuels. Of course, batteries and biofuels are keys to shifting our automobiles off of petroleum, and solar could eventually replace dirty coal.
However, (taking a page from Friedman’s playbook) Chu noted that countries like India and China, which have large coal reserves, will not abandon that cheap energy source, so the U.S. better lead the world in finding a way to burn it cleanly.
Chu noted that while the technology may not be there yet, these feats are far from impossible. He analogized the situation to the turn of the nineteenth century when European scientists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch made scientific discoveries that allowed the development of cheap nitrogen fertilizers that saved Europe from starvation.
Huge Increase in Birth Defects in China Coincides With Huge Increase in Coal Usage
We often discuss the adverse impacts of coal fired power plants on the climate, but another deadly impact is seen in a sharp increase in birth defects in people living near coal production areas. China, which in recent years has seen a huge increase in coal fired plants, has also seen a dramatic increase in birth defects in recent years.
Jiang Fan, the vice minister of the Chinese National Population and Family Planning Commission admitted recently that “The number of newborns with birth defects is constantly increasing.”
A recent study found that birth defects in China increased by nearly 40% from 2001 to 2006, which would coincide with that country’s rapid industrial growth. According to the Chinese government, the most common birth defects in China are cleft palate, neural tube defects, extra fingers or toes, and congenital heart disease. However, the LATimes notes that at least part of this increase is due to better data since more Chinese babies are now being born in hospitals.
Chinese Company BYD Makes Bold Prediction to Enter U.S. Market by 2011
Chinese battery, turned electric car manufacturer, BYD made a presentation at the Detroit auto show last week. (“BYD” stands for “Build Your Dreams.”) Company chairman, Wang Chuan-Fu, made the bold prediction that its plug-in hybrid model, the F6DM, and pure electric model, the E6, should launch in the U.S. and Europe in 2011.
Although the BYD is already selling a smaller plug-in hybrid, the F3Dm, in China, it appears that the company still has a few strides to make before entering the U.S. market– Wheels blog at NYT notes that BYD handed out a paper brochure during their presentation oddly titled, “Paper Cut of BYD Car Culture.” It is unclear what the proper translation should have been. (Maybe “A Paper Brochure of BYD Car Culture”?)
While at the car show, Chuan-Fu was also reported to have met with Warren Buffett, whose company MidAmerican Energy bought 10% of BYD last year.
Global Oil Demand Predicted to Decline Second Consecutive Year
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast on Friday that world oil demand will drop again in 2009, which would make it the first time in 26 years that demand has declined for two consecutive years.
The IEA based their estimate on downward revisions made to GDP forecasts by global economic institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund. According to the IEA report, “China’s economy, in particular, appears to have sharply slowed down as its main export markets tumble.”
The forecast calls for a 0.6% decline in demand in 2009. The last time there were two consecutive years of decline was in 1982 and 1983.
Some more news from Poznan
According to Sen. Kerry, Obama wants to cut U.S. emissions, now running 17 percent above 1990 levels, back to those levels by 2020. Bush had rejected the Kyoto Protocol and his laxer policies would have allowed emissions to keep rising until 2025.
Kerry said it was “absolutely essential” that China, which has overtaken the United States as the world’s top carbon dioxide emitter, gets more involved in combating global warming to win U.S. endorsement of any new treaty.
Among other nations, Mexico said it planned to set caps on greenhouse gas emissions next year for the first time.
Oil continues to fall as Merrill Lynch predicts even greater losses
With fears of a prolonged global recession and decreased demand for oil, crude fell to below $44 per barrel on Thursday, the lowest price since January 2005. This is off 70% from the commodity’s high in July of this year.
Further compounding fears of loose demand, Merrill Lynch predicted that oil could potentially fall below $25 per barrel next year if the recession spreads to China. Of course, this is the same Merrill Lynch that bet its entire company on the assumption of an eternal upward climb in the subprime housing market.
IEA warns of even bigger energy crisis to come
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released the full version of the summary report it put out last week. In it, the IEA reiterated its warning that shrinking global oil development stemming from the credit crunch and lower price of oil, is setting up the conditions for another supply shortage in the coming years. READ MORE
60 Minutes on American e-waste being dumped in China
60 Minutes had an interesting piece on American e-waste being illegally shipped to China, where it is recycled in an incredibly dangerous and pollution causing process.
Note: unfortunately, CBS requires you to sit through a commercial before the above clip, so I will replace this one with a YouTube version if/when available.
Thursday’s Environment
· Green Inc. notes that the Indian coal minister visited the US Appalachian region last week in pursuit of striking a deal to import American coal to India. Of course, given the global natural of greenhouse gas emissions, if we are able to cut back on our own coal production, only to then increase our export of coal to other nations, we will be accomplishing less than nothing.
· Energy Outlook wonders if the slowing of global oil production resulting from the credit crunch and the tendency of governments like Iran and Venezuela to invest oil revenues in social subsidies instead of production, could result in “an even bigger oil price spike within a few years.”
· Red Green and Blue reports that Australia is about to develop one of the world’s largest electric recharging systems. “The $676 million project could see the establishment of as many as two million recharging points, as well as more than 500 battery swap stations, where drivers can exchange depleted batteries without the need to wait for a recharge.”
· The Daily Green warns that China, which has already surpassed the US in greenhouse gas emissions, “continues under a business-as-usual trajectory, without seriously cutting back on its carbon emissions, then its greenhouse gas output could double — or more — by 2030.”
· AutoBlogGreen reports that GM took one step closer to producing the Chevy Volt when it announced a subsidiary of the South Korean company LG would be producing that cars batteries. (Of course, it is the battery that will ultimately make or break the electric car.)
Biden: ‘If I could wave a wand, and the Lord said I could solve one problem, I would solve the energy crisis’
While some politicians don’t seem to be rising to the occasion with respect to our failing energy policy, one who has been prominently in the news this week may actually be part of the solution. Joe Biden, Barack Obama’s pick for his running mate, has taken a strong and thoughtful position on climate change and energy policy.
Environmental Capital has a good overview of Biden’s positions with respect to these issues (via a Salon.com article written during the early part of the Democratic primary race). The following are some of the highlights of Biden’s positions on the environment and energy policy:
- Climate change as a security issue: If the predictions of the scientists are correct, you could see ocean levels rise three feet. If that occurs, you’re going to displace over 35 million people just in South Asia, and they’re going to physically be looking for a new place to land. Just that, all by itself, is going to initiate major new conflicts relating to war. You’re going to have nations fighting over arable land, more border disputes and, as a consequence, a great deal of instability.
- What the U.S. should do about global warming: To deal with global warming, you have to change the attitude of the world, particularly China and India, the two largest developing nations. But in order to do that, to have any credibility, you have to begin here in the United States…
- The deployment of “clean coal”: I don’t think there’s much of a role for clean coal in energy independence, but I do think there’s a significant role for clean coal in the bigger picture of climate change. Clean-coal technology is not the route to go in the United States, because we have other, cleaner alternatives. But I would invest a considerable amount of money in research and development of clean-coal and carbon-sequestration technologies for export. China is building one new coal-fired plant per week. That’s not going to change unless there’s a fundamental change in technology, because they have about 300 years of dirty coal, and they’re going to use it.
- Nuclear power: I see a role for nuclear, but first you’ve got to deal with the security as well as the safety concerns. I’d be spending a whole hell of a lot of money trying to figure out how to reconfigure the spent fuel into reusable fuel. I would not invest in [growing our nuclear power capacity in its current form], but I would invest in sorting out the storage and waste problems.
[Another good source for Biden's positions on the environment can be found at Grist.org.]
From around the web…
- U.S. and China, the world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters, share a common, yet complicated, interest in addressing this issue.
- Google.org announces a $10 million investment for geothermal energy development.
- Anti-windmill NIMBYs in Texas lose in court. We wonder: what will happen when these cases are brought in more liberal regions?
- A look at gas price trends and where they may be headed.
Foreign gas subsidies distort market and decrease incentive to conserve
While U.S. politicians have become bogged down in the blame game over whether the Republicans, Democrats, or market speculating boogey men are responsible for our high gas prices, the issue of subsidies by foreign governments is often overlooked in the debate. Apparently, 96% of the increase in the world’s consumption of oil last year came from countries that have gas subsidies. The two largest subsidy providers are the governments of China and Indonesia ($40 billion and $20 billion this year, respectively).
The effect of these subsidies is the exact opposite of what has been occurring in the United States. Here, the rapid increase in gasoline prices have spurred on a massive shift in how people think about their cars and the environment. In countries where the governments subsidize gas, much of this effect has been prevented. It is Economics 101 that an increase in price should result in a decrease in demand. Governments that subsidize gas distort this corrective force.
Of course, the oil market is far from free and open, being dominated by a handful of massive multinational corporations and the openly monopolistic OPEC. Nonetheless, this type of governmental action is apparently having a very real effect on personal behavior throughout the developing world by insulating them from a disincentive to consume.
Shift in domestic oil policy must be accompanied by global agreement
One issue that we have not looked at with respect to Al Gore and T. Boone Pickens’ recent proposals to decrease our consumption of oil, is the unintended effect that these plans might have on oil use in developing countries like China and India. Our concern is that if the United States is successful in dramatically reducing our consumption of oil, the resulting decrease in demand and price on the global market could allow developing nations to continue, or even increase, their own reliance on oil.
While it may not sound fair, if the rest of the developing world follows the irresponsible path that America and other developed countries took, there will be dire climate consequences. Therefore, we should not only be concerned with decreasing our own consumption of oil, but we should be aware of the effects of any potential easing of global demand and price on oil consumption in these countries.
While we must shift off of fossil fuels domestically, we should also attempt to involve the rest of the world in the process. Hopefully the next president will be able to undue the ill will created by our rejection of the Kyoto Treaty, and will be able to begin the process of creating some sort of global agreement on steps necessary to shift the entire planet away from the burning of fossil fuels. Otherwise, we may win the battle but lose the war.
China seeks green technology from Japan
Chinese President Hu Jintao, while visiting Japan today, expressed his hopes that Japan would share environmental technology with China, as it attempts to deal with the side-effects of its rapid growth. Apparently, while anti-green leaders in America assert that environmentally oriented policies will do too much damage to our economy, countries like Japan, are using green tech to not only improve international relations with its neighbors, but could see a profitable export industry develop, as well.
Proponents of comprehensive environmental policy reform in America have long argued that a shift towards a green economy will not “wreck” us, as warned by President Bush, but instead will provide economic growth and trade opportunities into the future. In fact, the policies of our current “pro-economy” leaders, like Bush, have led to the current situation where solar power development is shifting to Europe, where it has found a friendlier policy in place. Fortunately, it is still early in this global shift, and therefore imperative that the next U.S. president help to formulate and implement a policy that will nourish green industry, rather than sending it abroad.
