New U.S. Geological Survey Report Warns of Even More Dramatic and Abrupt Climate Change
A new report led by the U.S. Geological Survey warns that climate change may be more dramatic and abrupt than previously predicted. The analysis, which was based on an assessment of published science literature, makes the following major conclusions:
1. Climate model simulations and observations suggest that rapid and sustained September arctic sea ice loss is likely in the 21st century.
2. The southwestern United States may be beginning an abrupt period of increased drought.
3. It is very likely that the northward flow of warm water in the upper layers of the Atlantic Ocean, which has an important impact on the global climate system, will decrease by approximately 25-30 percent. However, it is very unlikely that this circulation will collapse or that the weakening will occur abruptly during the 21st century and beyond.
4. An abrupt change in sea level is possible, but predictions are highly uncertain due to shortcomings in existing climate models.
5. There is unlikely to be an abrupt release of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere from deposits in the earth. However, it is very likely that the pace of methane emissions will increase.
The report was commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program with contributions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Science Foundation.
According to USGS Director Mark Myers, “This report was truly a collaborative effort between world renowned scientists who provided objective, unbiased information that is necessary to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies that protect our livelihood. It summarizes the scientific community’s growing understanding regarding the potential for abrupt climate changes and identifies areas for additional research to further improve climate models.”
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Comments
One Comment on New U.S. Geological Survey Report Warns of Even More Dramatic and Abrupt Climate Change
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Jessica Robertson on
Fri, 2nd Jan 2009 8:28 am
Thank you for posting this to your site! It is great to see that you and others see the value in our research.
Jessica Robertson
U.S. Geological Survey
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