The path towards electric cars
Regardless of which alternative energy plan one subscribes to, it is clear that getting our cars off of oil is one of the primary steps that must be taken by our society. Whether we make natural gas a temporary step along this path, or not, it is evident that the one solution that will ultimately allow us to power cars with clean energy is by running them on electricity. This is because energy generation for the national grid can be done on a wide scale basis with renewable sources, like wind, solar and geothermal. (Of course this benefit is lost if the national grid continues to be supplied primarily by coal energy.)
The Chicago Tribune had a piece recently looking at the Chevy Volt, which after Tesla Motors’ offerings, is the most highly anticipated electric vehicle. According to GM, the Volt, which is scheduled to come out in 2010, should be able to go 40 miles on just a charge, and then another 350 miles on a small gas engine that is used to recharge the batteries. This scenario will be most ideal for commuters, who rarely go much beyond 40 miles per trip. Our one big concern remains the viability of modern batteries to provide reliable and sustained performance. One need only have experienced the frustration of diminished performance from a cell phone or laptop battery, which often occurs after less than a year, to know that battery technology still has a ways to go. This is why, although fully electric cars are most likely the real long term solution, we may still need a temporary step along the way, a la natural gas, until battery technology catches up to our needs.
Pine beetle ravishing Rocky Mtn forests
Although we like to take all anecdotal evidence of climate change with a grain of salt, Newsweek had an interesting article about how the mountain pine beetle is devastating enormous amounts of forest throughout the Rocky Mountains. To date, 1.5 million acres of lodgepole pine forest in Colorado (70% of those trees in the state) have been killed. It is predicted that within a few years, no more lodgepole pines will exist there. Although not as iconic as the aspen tree, the lodgepole pine is one of the most visible and scenic trees in the state, and accounts for 8% of the state’s forests.
The pine beetle infestation is being attributed to a number of causes, including a series of drought years and the aging lifecycle of many of the trees, which have left the trees vulnerable, as well as a longer beetle season, due possibly to shorter winters.
Israeli leads effort to ‘switch from the pump to the plug’
Tom Friedman had a recent column about Shai Agassi, an Israeli entrepreneur Friedman describes as a mixture of Henry Ford and Yitzhak Rabin. Agassi aims to revolutionize the way that cars are powered in Israel (and indirectly, the world). Friedman describes Agassi’s company, Better Place, as follows:
Better Place, and its impressive team would run the smart grid that charges the cars and is also contracting for enough new solar energy from Israeli companies — 2 gigawatts over 10 years — to power the whole fleet. “Israel will have the world’s first virtual oilfield in the Negev Desert,” said Agassi. His first 500 electric cars, built by Renault, will hit Israel’s roads next year.
His goal, said Agassi, is to make his electric car “so cheap, so trivial, that you won’t even think of buying a gasoline car.” Once that happens, he added, your oil addiction will be over forever.
Friedman also draws a parallel between Agassi and oil-man turned oil-iconoclast, T. Boone Pickens. A major distinction in their two efforts is their respective governments’ support (or lack thereof). In Israel, the government is backing Agassi’s efforts, being fully motivated to lessen that country’s dependence on foreign oil and to take a leadership position in the clean technology industry. However, here in the United States, our government still cannot pass meaningful energy reform.
Friedman, paraphrasing Pickens, notes that “Congress must adopt clear, predictable policies, with long term tax incentives and infrastructure, so thousands of investors can jump into clean power, [or] we’ll never get the scale we need to break our addiction.”
Of course both Friedman and Pickens are correct. The question now is: will the federal government get behind leaders like Al Gore and Pickens, like Israel has with Agassi, or will it continue to get in the way?
Texas continues to take lead on renewable energy
One of the major problems with our national power grid is antiquated and inefficient transmission lines. This is one of main issues that must be addressed in order for recent proposals, like the Gore and Pickens Plan, to be viable solutions. The State of Texas took a big step forward last week in addressing these concerns by giving preliminary approval to a $4.9 billion plan to build new transmission lines. The proposed lines will substantially increase the ability to transmit electricity from outlying regions that produce much of the state’s energy to the urban centers.
Specifically, this would allow existing, as well as proposed wind farms in West Texas to deliver their renewable electricity to the population centers. It is becoming more and more clear that the State of Texas is the leading example on how to effectively provide leadership and direction in the quest for clean energy generation and development.
Shift in domestic oil policy must be accompanied by global agreement
One issue that we have not looked at with respect to Al Gore and T. Boone Pickens’ recent proposals to decrease our consumption of oil, is the unintended effect that these plans might have on oil use in developing countries like China and India. Our concern is that if the United States is successful in dramatically reducing our consumption of oil, the resulting decrease in demand and price on the global market could allow developing nations to continue, or even increase, their own reliance on oil.
While it may not sound fair, if the rest of the developing world follows the irresponsible path that America and other developed countries took, there will be dire climate consequences. Therefore, we should not only be concerned with decreasing our own consumption of oil, but we should be aware of the effects of any potential easing of global demand and price on oil consumption in these countries.
While we must shift off of fossil fuels domestically, we should also attempt to involve the rest of the world in the process. Hopefully the next president will be able to undue the ill will created by our rejection of the Kyoto Treaty, and will be able to begin the process of creating some sort of global agreement on steps necessary to shift the entire planet away from the burning of fossil fuels. Otherwise, we may win the battle but lose the war.
Russia agrees to restore oil flow to Czech Republic
Russia, which was recently accused of limiting oil flow to the Czech Republic over the Czech’s agreement to host a U.S. anti-ballistic missile radar system in their country, has taken steps to restore the full flow. Russia’s former president and current prime minister, Vladimir Putin, instructed the Russian government to ensure that oil flow to the Czech Republic is fully restored. However, Putin also asserted that Russia was not to blame for the decrease in flow, but was rather due to the behavior of offshore oil trading companies.
Regardless of who was responsible for the decrease in flow, it is clear that in this day and age, the trade of oil and gas will be increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disagreements. While the Czech Republic was not seriously harmed by these events, future disputes may be much more debilitating for vulnerable nations, such as the United States. This fact acts to further highlight the importance of rapidly and substantially decreasing our dependence on foreign oil.
San Diego sees decrease in freeway traffic
The San Diego Union Tribune reported this week that after conducting an analysis of Caltrans data, they’ve determined that traffic in San Diego County is down for the first time ever. Looking at current traffic data compared to the same time period last year, the U-T found that weekday traffic in June decreased from between 3.3% and 9.1%, depending on the freeway. Even more dramatic is the decrease in weekend traffic, which has ranged from 5.2% to 11.9%. This decrease in traffic is, of course, being attributed to the high price of gasoline and the slowing economy.
While it is great that there is less traffic on the roads, it is unfortunate that the primary alternative to not driving is to stay at home, or close to home. While the San Diego Trolley has had a 6.8% growth in ridership over the past year, it is not a practical alternative for most residents. In San Diego, as is the case in most U.S. cities, there are very limited means of public transit. Yes, it is good news that people are driving less and the roads are less crowded, but it is too bad that there isn’t a meaningful rail alternative to fill that void.
Gore addresses criticisms of his personal lifestyle
Following up on our post from yesterday about Al Gore’s appearance on Meet the Press, we wanted to look at one other issue that Tom Brokaw questioned Gore about, and that is the criticisms that have been levied at him about his own personal energy use. Since we’ve looked at this issue previously (and argued that while it may not be fair, his personal lifestyle is inevitably held to a higher standard because of his role as the leading environmental activist), we wanted to highlight Gore’s response to these criticisms.
In response to a question from Brokaw about the size of the Gore family residence in Tennessee, Gore asserted:
Well, there–I don’t claim to be perfect, and all of us who care about this issue are, are trying to do our part, but I, I will say this. We buy green energy. The issue is carbon. The issue is carbon, and we have, essentially, a carbon-free home. We buy from wind energy and solar energy. Our roof is covered with solar electric panels, a geothermal system with all these deep wells, and we cut our natural gas bill by 90 percent, and I’m, I’m–we’re, we’re walking the walk and not just talking the talk. There are always people who are going to try to aim at the messenger if they don’t like the message, and I don’t claim to be perfect, but we are walking the walk.
And regarding the question as to whether he uses private jets, Gore stated:
I’ve–much more frequently on public transportation. I’m flying on Southwest Airlines again today. But sometimes the schedule requires that, and sometimes I do that.
Gore also indicated that it would be a good idea to impose a surcharge on jet fuel for private aviation, since it has a disproportionably large carbon footprint.
Al Gore on Meet the Press
Appearing on Meet the Press on Sunday, Al Gore discussed dozens of wide-ranging topics including his recent energy proposal, T. Boone Pickens, the proposed gas tax holiday and Bush’s recent proposal to end the ban on offshore drilling.
Not surprisingly, Gore is opposed to the gas tax holiday, as being misguided, and he opposes the lifting of the ban on offshore drilling, as being merely a “drop in the bucket.” We were also interested to hear Gore speak positively about the Pickens Plan, but he felt that instead of shifting our vehicles to natural gas, as Pickens proposes, that we should instead focus on moving towards all electric cars.
Regarding his own proposal, Gore indicated that his intention and hope is that “when we have the political will to act, there’s a concrete plan in place to really shift over to renewable energy.” He said recent technological developments in renewable energy generation and transmission, as well as the steep prices resulting from increasing world demand for coal and oil, have finally created a situation where widespread renewable energy generation is not only possible, but economically competitive.
One of the main themes of this blog is the idea that our country is desperately in need of public and private leadership that is committed to forcing change in the unsustainable status quo. Gore, through his efforts to educate the public about climate change and to motivate positive change through his leadership, clearly meets these criteria.
A closer look at the Pickens Plan
We have spent a lot of time lionizing T. Boone Pickens over the past week for his proposed Pickens Plan. Now we want to dig a little deeper into this plan to see what types of problems it might contain. The most common critique we’ve seen is related to the part of the proposal that would shift natural gas use from electricity generation to powering automobiles. Although Pickens recognizes that the shift to natural gas in automobiles is not going to be a permanent solution, there do seem to be some other legitimate criticisms. Mainly, these criticisms have to do with the problem of greenhouse gas emissions rather than dependency on foreign oil.
Specifically, while natural gas vehicles have fewer emissions than those that burn petroleum, this savings may be overshadowed by the fact that natural gas is a relatively clean and efficient means of generating electricity. Additionally, natural gas is a very reliable source of energy, while winds can be fleeting. By removing natural gas from the grid, some of these valuable benefits will be lost. As a result, some have argued that instead of using wind power to replace natural gas on the grid, maybe it would make more sense to only implement the part of the Pickens Plan that calls for massive wind power development and disregard the proposed shift to natural gas vehicles. This would allow us to use the new wind energy to replace dirty coal instead of relatively clean natural gas.
Of course, this would leave unsolved the question of what to do about our vehicles. However, as some companies are trying to demonstrate, if cars can instead be shifted to electric power, focusing on how we generate power for the grid may be the right path. Since electric cars are fueled by plugging into the grid, where that electricity comes from and how it was generated is a major component of what determines that car’s emissions efficiency. By focusing on how to make our grid power as clean and efficient as possible (i.e., through a massive wind energy development), we could be indirectly creating the conditions necessary to shift our cars off of petroleum and on to a cleaner source.
Regardless, whether the Pickens Plan should be implemented in full, or just in parts, it is clear that there is enormous value in him merely providing a concrete proposal. By articulating a specific plan, Pickens has given policy makers and the public something concrete to debate and analyze. Just framing the proposed strategy in specific terms now allows us to better discuss the proposed path and consequently, move us much closer to actual action.
Al Gore calls for abandonment of fossil fuels in 10 years
Speaking at an energy conference in Washington today, Al Gore declared that the U.S. should abandon the use of fossil fuels for the generation of electricity within the next 10 years. Gore argued that the confluence of climate change and geo-political dangers stemming from our excessive consumption and reliance on fossil fuels has created an unsustainable situation that must be addressed immediately. Gore’s main policy proposal is centered around the imposition of a broad carbon tax on emissions. Gore also criticized the current political leadership by calling them “defenders of the status quo.”
More information about his specific proposals can be found at WeCanSolveIt.org, a website run by The Alliance for Climate Protection, a bipartisan environmental action group led by Gore. According to the Alliance, the costs of moving from fossil fuels to clean energy generation would be between $1.5 trillion to $3 trillion over 30 years. (It is unclear what the costs would be under his 10 year proposal.)
Our only criticism would be: we need more specifics! Unlike the Pickens Plan, which is very clear in its proposed course of action (shift current natural gas use in electricity generation to transportation and replace it with wind power), Gore’s proposals are more broad based and are not as much of a specific call to action. Maybe this is due to the fact that Gore is a politician and Pickens is a businessman?
Tesla Motors’ picks up industry vet, hopefully a sign of strong faith in company
Coming on the heels of Tesla Motors’ decision that they will build their new electric sedan in California, this non-traditional automaker announced the hiring of former Chrysler VP of Product Development, Mike Donoughe. The hiring of Donoughe, who will be the VP of Vehicle Engineering and Manufacturing, hopefully indicates a general belief by auto industry veterans that Tesla Motors’ future is bright. Those veterans, who are highly experienced in the industry, hopefully see Tesla as a real threat to the existing model and may be looking to hop on board.
According to Donoughe, “I joined the Tesla team because I am enthusiastic about Tesla’s objective to integrate their disruptive EV technology into mainstream automobiles. Tesla is creating vehicles that appeal to customers looking for environmentally sound and energy efficient solutions without compromising on functionality and performance. I look forward to contributing to these efforts as a part of the Tesla team.”
CA high speed rail takes a small step forward with agency approval of route
In spite of some recent setbacks, California’s proposed high speed rail system took a step forward last week when the California High Speed Rail Authority’s board approved the train’s route. The $10 billion bond measure to fund the beginning of the $40 billion project is slated to be on the November ballot in California, and was also recently endorsed by the governor. The route approved by the board will go as far north as San Francisco, and as far south as Anaheim. Major Central California stops would include San Jose, Merced, Fresno and Bakersfield. The main southern stop would be Los Angeles’ Union Station. It is contemplated that the line could be extended to Sacramento in the north and San Diego in the south at some point in the future.
The more we read about this proposed project, the more we are in favor of it. Our one criticism has been that it doesn’t address the problems of intra-city travel. However, it is our belief that should this major, inter-city rail system actually be built, that it will likely spur the development of other public railways at local levels. By building the high speed rail, the state will be taking a step towards shifting our culture away from cars and towards trains. These shifts in cultural norms can have contagious effects. Furthermore, and even more importantly, there will be practical reasons to further build-up local rail infrastructure, since they will provide the means to link up to the high speed rail system (like is the case in Europe).
There are always skeptics and opponents whenever a major project involving public funds is proposed, but for something as essential as the ability to travel throughout the state and to address greenhouse gas emissions from cars and planes, when there is an intelligently proposed plan that is able to radically address both issues, inaction is inexcusable.
The other risk of excessive oil consumption: petro-influenced international relations
The effort to decrease consumption of fossil fuels, while closely related to environmental issues, also has a strong geo-political component. As T. Boone Pickens has been emphasizing lately, dependence on foreign countries for one’s supply of energy can have dangerous and expensive consequences.
This fact has been highlighted in recent days by a rift that has developed between the Czech Republic and Russia over the Czechs’ decision to host an American antiballistic missile radar system on Czech soil. Russia, which strongly opposes this system (arguing that it will disrupt the current balance of power) is suspected of taking punitive measures against the Czechs by temporarily cutting off their supply of oil. While Russia denies intentionally cutting the flow of oil, both the Ukraine and Lithuania have accused Russia (or Russian companies) of using the flow of oil and natural gas as a political weapon in the past, and it is suspected as a possible explanation in this case.
Either way, this situation illustrates that the risks of fossil fuel dependence extend beyond environmental damage. In the current geo-political world, where much of the world’s fossil fuels are controlled by authoritarian countries, it is dangerous to be beholden to their spigots. And in the Czechs’ case, even though they have a secondary oil pipeline coming from Western Europe, much of that oil originates in the Middle East. While it may be hard to imagine a situation where global politics would lead to a complete disruption of oil supplies, in reality, such a scenario is not that inconceivable given dwindling supplies, skyrocketing demand and the enormous financial and political consequences of petro-policies. As long as these facts remain, and they will for the foreseeable future, the only option is to dramatically decrease our consumption and reliance on oil.
The Pickens Plan 101
The more we learn about the Pickens Plan, the more we are impressed. The video clip above is of Pickens giving a quick 5 minute overview of our oil problem and his proposed solution. The crux of that solution is to replace the 22% of the energy that is currently being generated through the burning of natural gas with energy produced from the high wind corridor that sits in the middle of America. That natural gas resource would then be transfered to power automobiles, thereby dramatically reducing our consumption of oil.
According to Pickens, the key to this plan’s success will be having the right leadership, and having the ability to get the entire country on board and to “march in the same direction.” It seems to us that Pickens has provided us the answer, whether we implement it is now up to us and the leaders we choose.
