Russian Flow of Natural Gas via Ukraine Shut Off Completely

Articles — By forcechange on January 7, 2009 9:05 am

The Russia-Ukraine natural gas dispute has escalated significantly with Russia cutting off basically the entire flow of natural gas on that pipeline on Wednesday.  As a result, Europe, which depends on Russia for 25% of its natural gas supplies may see serious shortages as soon as next week.  The countries particularly dependent on these supplies include Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, and Turkey.  However, western countries, including France and Germany may also face shortages.

Although Russian energy monopoly Gazprom says that it is increasing its deliveries to the EU via other routes, traditionally 80% of the gas is delivered through Ukraine.  Consequently, there may not be enough alternative pipeline capacity to make up for the massive shortfall.  Currently, Russian gas supplies to Europe are half of normal.

Unfortunately for the EU, it doesn’t have a whole lot of leverage in this situation.  They are truly dependent on Russia (and Ukraine) for a large portion of their natural gas supplies, and are stuck in the dead of winter with greatly diminished gas.  They have few alternatives and Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, seems unlikely to convince Russia to change its ways.

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